Behavioural model to profile and predict consumers’ choices to facilitate healthy and sustainable diets

The diet transition objectives set by the EAT-Lancet Commission on healthy diets from sustainable food systems for the European region are clear: reduce consumption of red meat (4-fold), starchy vegetables (4-fold), eggs (2-fold), poultry and dairy (20%) and intake of saturated fat, added sugars and salt while largely increasing that of vegetables, fruit, legumes, whole grains and nuts. Yet, these in consumption patterns are not easy to achieve for consumers, since they involve major changes in shopping, cooking, and eating habits, including a reconsideration of meal structure, often organized around a meat product. A multi-level effort is needed focusing both i) on the identification of driver the behavioral drivers, i.e., capability, opportunity, and motivations that can predict consumers’ choices and ii) on actions to trigger behavior change at an individual level by working on those behavioral drivers to help all consumers make healthy and sustainable choices more easily.  
 

The operational plan consists of three main phases
Phase 1. Overview of scientific literature on consumer behaviour related to dietary choices and on the definition of and healthy diets. The overview will allow to identify a set of behavioural elements driving consumers’ food choices.
Phase 2. On the basis of results of literature review, design of at least two typologies of choice experiments to be conducted with samples of consumers representative of different socio-demographic groups. At least one choice experiment will be conducted with the support of the FARE lab of the University of Bologna. 
Phase 3. Design of a set of behavioural models describing the behaviour of different typologies of consumers. The models will be the base for the elaboration of recommendations to facilitate the adoption of healthy and sustainable diets. The models will be the base for the design of scenarios of economic and health impact of the adoption of healthy and sustainable diets at national level. 
 

The main objective is the creation of innovative, high-level knowledge about the factors and mechanisms that drive consumers' choices toward the adoption of healthy and sustainable diets and consumption patterns.
Results from the project will contribute to the national and international debate on how to stimulate the adoption of healthy, sustainable, and affordable dietary and consumption patterns, with a particular focus on the development of innovative and efficient policies and interventions. Also, an assessment of health and economic impact of adoption of sustainable dietary and consumption patterns will be developed.
In particular, expected results will focus on
1. The assessment of consumer food choice behavioral drivers and the interaction between the 
2. The development of new predictive consumption models and of scenario analysis 
3. The development of guidelines for the development of effective actions and responsive public policies and interventions